IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.7	#152
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.0	#182
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.1	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#148

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.2%	25.9%	14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	2.0%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.6	12.9	13.8

.500 or above	71.8%	89.6%	68.4%
.500 or above in Conference	85.2%	92.9%	83.8%
Conference Champion	19.0%	27.9%	17.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%

First Four	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%
First Round	15.8%	25.4%	13.9%
Second Round	2.4%	4.9%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	1.1%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.1	0.1 - 1.1
Quad 1b	0.3 - 1.8	0.4 - 2.9
Quad 2	1.1 - 2.9	1.5 - 5.8
Quad 3	3.9 - 3.7	5.4 - 9.5
Quad 4	11.5 - 2.7	16.8 - 12.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	63	@ BYU	L	66-74	16%
Nov 11, 2018	59	@ St. Mary's	L	65-73	15%
Nov 16, 2018	144	@ Utah St.	L	71-72	37%
Nov 19, 2018	193	Hartford	W	72-70	58%
Nov 21, 2018	189	Long Beach St.	W	77-75	58%
Nov 24, 2018	271	North Dakota	W	78-71	81%
Dec 01, 2018	200	Denver	W	71-68	69%
Dec 06, 2018	66	@ Arizona	L	69-76	19%
Dec 08, 2018	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	75-64	76%
Dec 15, 2018	147	@ Weber St.	L	71-72	38%
Dec 19, 2018	247	Idaho St.	W	76-70	77%
Dec 22, 2018	258	Sam Houston St.	W	72-66	79%
Dec 29, 2018	91	@ Fresno St.	L	67-72	26%
Jan 03, 2019	114	@ Grand Canyon	L	69-72	31%
Jan 05, 2019	204	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-65	51%
Jan 12, 2019	244	Seattle	W	73-68	77%
Jan 17, 2019	311	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	82-73	85%
Jan 19, 2019	93	New Mexico St.	L	68-72	45%
Jan 24, 2019	279	@ UMKC	W	76-69	63%
Jan 26, 2019	350	@ Chicago St.	W	83-66	88%
Jan 30, 2019	288	California Baptist	W	76-68	81%
Feb 14, 2019	93	@ New Mexico St.	L	68-72	27%
Feb 16, 2019	311	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	82-73	70%
Feb 21, 2019	350	Chicago St.	W	83-66	95%
Feb 23, 2019	279	UMKC	W	76-69	79%
Feb 26, 2019	244	@ Seattle	W	73-68	57%
Mar 02, 2019	288	@ California Baptist	W	76-68	64%
Mar 07, 2019	114	Grand Canyon	L	69-72	51%
Mar 09, 2019	204	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-65	70%
Projected Record						16.8 - 12.2	10.4 - 5.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	0.6	2.5	5.6	5.9	3.5	0.9		19.0	1st
2nd										0.2	1.6	5.8	8.1	4.7	1.2				21.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.4	3.3	7.7	7.8	2.6	0.3					22.0	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	3.3	6.4	4.2	0.8	0.0						15.4	4th
5th						0.0	0.6	3.2	4.0	2.4	0.2								10.4	5th
6th					0.0	0.6	1.9	2.6	1.1	0.0									6.3	6th
7th				0.0	0.4	1.2	1.2	0.3	0.0										3.2	7th
8th		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0											1.7	8th
9th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.2	9th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.4	3.9	6.8	8.8	12.3	13.8	15.0	13.3	10.6	7.1	3.5	0.9			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
15-1	100.0%	3.5		3.3	0.2
14-2	83.3%	5.9		4.4	1.5	0.0
13-3	53.0%	5.6		2.5	2.6	0.5	0.0
12-4	19.2%	2.5		0.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
11-5	3.7%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	19.0%	19.0		12.0	5.6	1.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.9%		74.9%	66.8%	8.1%	10.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		24.4%
15-1	3.5%		61.2%	56.8%	4.4%	12.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.3		10.1%
14-2	7.1%		43.5%	42.6%	1.0%	13.0							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.8	0.3	0.0	4.0		1.7%
13-3	10.6%		29.6%	29.1%	0.5%	13.5											0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	7.5		0.7%
12-4	13.3%		21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	14.1											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.4	10.4		0.0%
11-5	15.0%		13.8%	13.8%		14.6													0.1	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	12.9
10-6	13.8%		8.4%	8.4%		14.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.3	12.6
9-7	12.3%		5.1%	5.1%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	11.7
8-8	8.8%		2.5%	2.5%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	8.6
7-9	6.8%		2.5%	2.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.6
6-10	3.9%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.0	3.8
5-11	2.4%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	2.3
4-12	1.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
3-13	0.4%																							0.4
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.2%	15.9%	0.4%	13.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.8	2.3	3.4	4.1	3.1	1.9	83.8		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	2.9	3.6		96.4